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How important is the first goal in soccer?

By 1st October 2017 No Comments

Due to Soccer’s low scoring nature, the importance of a single goal cannot be underestimated. Once the first goal has been scored the outcome of the match is much easier to predict. Continue reading to find out how to use data to inform your betting and calculate what might happen after the first goal has been scored in a soccer match.

Live soccer betting is very popular as it allows bettors to stake money on an event they have previous knowledge in. The most significant event in soccer is obviously a goal and by using historic data we can estimate the likelihood that the team who is ahead or behind after the first goal will win the match in order to bet accordingly.

The first step in developing a live soccer betting strategy is understanding the basic bet types. Once bettors are aware of the meanings of different odds they can begin to use more advanced markets, learn how to bet on the Over/Under and use a Handicap soccer betting strategy.

How often does a team win after scoring the first goal?

Across the last seven full seasons in the Premier League, the team that scored the first goal won the match 69% of the time, with a draw occurring in 19% of matches and a team managing to come from behind to win in just 12% of games. Of course, not all teams are equal, and when you break the league table into five bands, the percentages of wins, draws and defeats vary.

If a top four team takes the lead then they win the match over four times out five games, whereas a bottom four side will still only have marginally better odds than a coin flip of winning.

How team ability affects the chances of a comeback

The total percentages for wins, draws or losses are obviously flipped when a team concedes first and breaking it down into bands of four teams again sees a similar outcome as before.

The majority of the percentages match up pretty closely when flipped. For instance, a top four team only loses 6.1% of matches when they score first, and bottom four teams only win 6.4% of the time when conceding the opening goal of a match. With this information, bettors can estimate the likelihood of a team winning, drawing or losing depending on the scorers of the first goal.

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