The basic principle in profitable sports betting is that you can only win in the long run by consistently trading when the odds are in your favor. Our proven and tested unique player algorithms are ready to pounce whenever the bookmakers’ odds do not reflect the true odds for a particular event. And this happens far more often than one would expect.
The vast majority of punters have always, and will always lose money. This means the bookmakers do not have to be that sophisticated with their risk management and that leads to inadequacies that we exploit. Further, bookmakers offer odds to maximize their profits, not to reflect true probability. If one team is heavily backed, then they adjust the odds to offset their own exposure and profit from the commission.
By generating an accurate probability and edge over the bookmakers, it is simple to understand that the more we turnover, the more we exploit the mispricing, and the more profitable and successful we are. Since we began trading 5 years ago we have validated the profitable opportunities that exist with consistent double digit yields, resulting in excellent low risk returns.
We only ever risk a maximum of 2.5% per bet but the average bet size is around 1%. Every bet is different in the probability of the outcome and the size of the edge we have over the bookmaker. The higher the probability and the higher the edge the bigger the bet will be and vice versa.
Apex Algorithms was established in 2013 to take advantage of the pricing mismatches and to deliver exceptional profits to our clients.
We are here purely to provide our clients with alpha: an excess return that far exceeds traditional financial securities of similar risk.
Apex Algorithms uses sophisticated financial market techniques and machine learning techniques to build sports prediction models to capitalize on the huge mispricing opportunities in the subjective sports markets.
With the explosion in online sports and betting websites since the inception of the internet, there is now over a decade of historical data available to assist in creating accurate prediction models. These can then be backtested and trained in the vast banks of available data. Advanced mathematics using supercomputers can be applied to the sports markets.
Using machine learning techniques to build neural networks and genetic algorithms, the data can be mined to discern whether the phenomena in the markets are real or just noise and build models accordingly.
Another key aspect of Apex Algorithm’s risk control is the integration of a fully automated execution-only platform. One of the biggest downfalls to the punter in sports betting comes from their emotional involvement. Apex Algorithm’s models are connected to the external API’s of the betting companies and execute all bets automatically without human intervention. This is vital to the success of Apex Algorithms. The model receives market data from sports websites.
For example, in football, as soon as the team news is available, a connection to the Press Association provides the team news an hour before kick-off . Using this data, the model will calculate what the real price should be for that fixture. It will then scan the betting markets to see if the market prices are better than the real price and, using the Kelly staking system, the model calculates the stake accordingly. The algorithm finally executes the bet. Apex algorithm’s goal is to be hooked up to the global sports grid 24-7, automatically gobbling up price opportunities. As they appear, models will execute the bets seconds after the real prices are compared to the market price.